New Zealanders have been told to look out for El Niño in the coming months, with the weather pattern expected to become strongest over summer. Earth Sciences New Zealand says there is a 95 per cent chance of El Niño conditions between June and August 2026. El Niño is a natural climate driver that begins in the Pacific Ocean and can affect weather around the world. For New Zealand, it is likely to bring drier, hotter and windier conditions to many areas.
El Niño happens when ocean water near South America becomes warmer than usual. At the same time, trade winds near the Equator can weaken or even change direction. This moves warm and cool ocean water around the Pacific, which can change where rain and storms form. In New Zealand, El Niño can lead to stronger westerly winds in summer and more southerly winds in winter.
La Niña is the opposite climate pattern, with cooler water in the eastern Pacific and warmer water in the western Pacific. It often brings moist, rainy weather to north-eastern parts of the North Island. El Niño, however, may mean fewer rain events from the north, which could reduce flooding and landslides. It could also bring droughts and heatwaves, especially as spring and summer arrive.
Earth Sciences New Zealand says rainfall may be below normal in many parts of the North Island and the east of the South Island. Some areas, such as the west of the South Island, may still have normal or above-normal rainfall. Scientists say every El Niño is different, so its exact effects can change from year to year. Peak El Niño conditions are expected during the summer of 2026–27, when the impacts could become more serious.
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