New Zealand is set to get hotter faster than previously expected, according to new climate projections from NIWA.
The updated data shows that temperatures will rise more quickly, with the country possibly warming by 3°C by the end of this century if global emissions aren’t reduced. Currently, temperatures are already 1.1°C hotter than they were at the start of the 20th century.
NIWA scientists used advanced computer models to study New Zealand’s future climate, zooming in on areas as small as 5×5 kilometres. These models show that the entire country will warm under all future scenarios, with drier conditions expected in many regions, particularly the North Island and eastern South Island. Even if emissions drop significantly, New Zealand is still expected to be 0.8°C warmer by 2100.
Andrew Tait, NIWA’s chief scientist, emphasised the importance of using this new information to prepare for heatwaves, changes in farming, and extreme weather events like wildfires and floods. While the overall drying trend won’t reduce the risk of flooding, heavier rainstorms could cause more landslides and damage.
The findings suggest that careful planning is necessary to protect water resources, agriculture, and communities from the changing climate.
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